Ahead of the Curve

A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business

Joseph H. Ellis

276 pages, parution le 18/11/2005

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Résumé

Today's managers and investors are bombarded with so many conflicting economic reports and data that it seems impossible to know which way the market will turn until it's too late.

Now, a thirty-five year Wall Street veteran enables managers and investors to stop relying on conventional economic forecasts (which are usually wrong), and confidently analyse how the market will impact their industry, business, or stocks. The author unveils his proven forecasting model'based on just a few key economic indicators'for identifying major directional changes in the economy and adjusting business and investing strategies accordingly.

A simpler and more pragmatic approach to forecasting: user-friendly approach draws from empirical observation and first-hand practice rather than abstract economic theories
Great timing: will appeal to the many business people and investors who got burned in the dotcom bust because they didn't see the downturn coming
Proven model developed by a bonafide Wall Street sage: Ellis is widely respected as a sage when it comes to analysing economic trends based on over three decades as a successful Wall Street analyst
Novel, counterintuitive, accessible: goes against the grain of common wisdom about what really drives the economy and makes practical tools available to a wide audience of practitioners for the first time
Appendix B in the book specifically relates the methodology in the main section of the book to possible application in the UK, Canada, Germany, France, and Japan

L'auteur - Joseph H. Ellis

Joseph H. Ellis was a partner of Goldman Sachs and was ranked for eighteen consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's #1 retail-industry analyst.

Sommaire

'Seeing' The Economy: Creating Order Out of Chaos
- Seeing Around Economic Corners
- Making Sense of the Economy
- Getting Out of Harm's Way: Redefining Economic Downturns
- The 'ROCET' Method: Antidote for the Recession Obsession
- Smart Economic Tracking: Getting the Noise Out
- The Nature of Leading Indicators
Consumer Spending: Cornerstone of the Economy and Stock Market
- Consumer Spending: Powering the Demand Chain in the Economy
- Consumer Spending and the Stock Market
Forecasting Consumer Spending
- Predicting the Consumer: Do It on the Numbers; Lose the Psychology
- Real Earnings: Powerhouse of the Economy
- Employment and Unemployment: The Economy's Deceptive Laggard
- Interest rates, The Fed's Mystique, and The Core Role of Inflation
- Interest Rates and the Stock Market: A Concerned Look Forward
- Federal Deficits and Interest Rates: There Is a Link
From Theory to Practice
- 'Drilling Down:' Forecasting For Your Own Industry or Company
- Conclusion: Making Economics Happen

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Caractéristiques techniques

	PAPIER
Éditeur(s)	Harvard Business School Press (HBS)
Auteur(s)	Joseph H. Ellis
Parution	18/11/2005
Nb. de pages	276
Format	16 x 24,5
Couverture	Relié
Poids	630g
Intérieur	Noir et Blanc
EAN13	9781591396918
ISBN13	978-1-59139-691-8