Information-Gap Decision Theory

Info-gap theory deals with many of the problems and questions of classical decision analysis such as risk assessment, gambling, value of information, trade-off analysis, and preference reversal, but the distinctive character of info-gap uncertainty repeatedly gives rise to new insights and unique decision algorithms. Furthermore, this book deals with many of the difficult interface issues facing the responsible decision maker such as value judgments concerning risk and immunity to failure, as well as philosophical implications of decision under uncertainty. This book is a fresh approach to the age-old problem of deciding responsibly with deficient information.

An info-gap is the disparity between what is known and what needs to be known in order to make a well-founded decision. The book begins with a discussion of info-gap models of uncertainty, which provides an innovative approach to the quantification of severe lack of information.

This book can be used in advanced undergraduate and graduate courses on decision theory and risk analysis. It is also of interest to practicing decision analysts and to researchers in decision theory and in human decision-making.

Contents

• Preface
• Overview
• Uncertainty
• Robustuness and opportunity
• Value judgments
• Antagonistic and sympathetic immunities
• Gambling and risk sensitivity
• Value of information
• Learning
• Coherent uncertainties and consensus
• Retrospective essay : risk assessment in project managment
• Hybrid uncertainties
• Implications of info-gap uncertainty
• References
• Index