Curve Ball

Baseball, Statistics and the Role of Chance in the Game

Jim Albert, Jay Bennett

410 pages, parution le 12/06/2003

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Résumé

To real baseball fans, statistics are indispensable, and inextricably tied to understanding and enjoying the game. But how useful are ordinary baseball stats as tools for evaluating a player, choosing a strategy, or predicting a winner?

In this lively and thought-provoking look at the numbers and the game, Jim Albert and Jay Bennett examine just what we learn, and just what we think we learn, from baseball statistics. The authors consider the key questions every serious fan obsesses about: What is the best way to rate a great hitter? Is there really a fair way to name an MVP? Does anyone have a reasonably accurate way to predict the outcome of a game? How likely is it that some of the game's milestone achievements (e.g., Mark McGwire's single-season home run record) will be broken?

By incorporating the seldom-used statistical techniques of probability, the authors come to some original and surprising conclusions: It turns out, for example, that the phenomenon of "streakiness" (a hot hand, a hot bat) is measurable and can serve as a very useful predictor of performance. Conversely, they find that a lot of situational statistics (home versus away games, play on artificial turf versus grass) are, statistically speaking, little more than "noise." And, in news that will bring consolation to Cubs and Red Sox fans, they declare that it's not always the best team that wins the World Series.

Keeping the mathematics at an accessible level, Albert and Bennett show that statistics is not just a powerful tool of analysis and prediction, but a pleasurable and informative pastime in its own right.

Simple Models from Tabletop Baseball Games
Exploring Baseball Data
Introducing Probability
Situational Effects
Streakiness (or, the Hot Hand)
Measuring Offensive Performance
Average Runs per Play
The Curvature of Baseball
Measuring Clutch Play
Prediction
Did the Best Team Win?
Post-Game Comments

Caractéristiques techniques

	PAPIER
Éditeur(s)	Springer
Auteur(s)	Jim Albert, Jay Bennett
Parution	12/06/2003
Nb. de pages	410
Format	15,5 x 23,5
Couverture	Relié
Poids	730g
Intérieur	Noir et Blanc
EAN13	9780387001937
ISBN13	978-0-387-00193-7