Food Dependency in the Middle East and North Africa Region: Retrospective Analysis and Projections t

Foreword
Introduction: A fragile region notable for its growing dependence on agricultural imports; B. Schmitt & C. Le Mouel
Chapter 1: Determinants of the growing food dependence (1961-2011); P. Marty, S. Manceron, C. Le Mouel, A. Forslund, M.-A. Caillaud & B. Schmitt
1. Food and agricultural demand: growing and changing in nature
2. Growth in agricultural production: limited by constraints affecting production factors
3. Growing need of agricultural imports
4. Imbalance between supply and demand: uncertainties for the future
Chapter 2: By 2050, a possible strengthening of the regional dependence on agricultural imports; A. Forslund, C. Le Mouel, S. Manceron, E. Marajo-Petitzon & B. Schmitt
1. In 2050, the need for land would still exceed availability
2. Growing recourse to agricultural imports
3. Agricultural labour productivity could deteriorate
4. By 2050, strengthening of import dependence, notably in case of accentuated effects of climate change
Chapter 3: Brakes and levers to reduce the dependence on imports in the Middle East-North Africa region; C. Le Mouel, A. Forslund, E. Marajo-Petitzon, M.-A. Caillaud & B. Schmitt
1. Alternative hypotheses on food consumption often lead to increased imports
2. Hypotheses for more favourable development of domestic supply
3. The effects of halving losses and waste in agricultural products
4. Which levers for reducing import dependence of the Middle East-North Africa region?
Conclusion; B. Schmitt & C. Le Mouel
Bibliography
Annex 1: The GlobAgri-Pluriagri model and database; A. Forslund, S. Manceron, E. Marajo-Petitzon & C. Le Mouel
Annex 2: The composition of the 36 products and 17 geographical zones in GlobAgri-Pluriagri