Foundations of Risk Analysis

A Knowledge and Decision-Oriented Perspective

Terje Aven

190 pages, parution le 09/10/2003

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Résumé

Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis . expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making.

Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty.
Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods.
Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models.
Highlights a number of applications from business and industry.
Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory.

Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Introduction
Common Thinking about Risk and Risk Analysis
How to Think about Risk and Risk Analysis
How to Assess Uncertainties and Specify Probabilities
How to Use Risk Analysis to Support Decision-Making
Summary and Conclusions

Appendix A: Basic Theory of Probability and Statistics
Bibliographic Notes
Appendix B: Terminology

Caractéristiques techniques

	PAPIER
Éditeur(s)	Wiley
Auteur(s)	Terje Aven
Parution	09/10/2003
Nb. de pages	190
Format	15,5 x 23
Couverture	Relié
Poids	455g
Intérieur	Noir et Blanc
EAN13	9780471495482
ISBN13	978-0-471-49548-2