Stock Trader's Almanac 2005

J.P. Morgan's classic retort "Stocks will fluctuate" is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only predication one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways. Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be farther from the truth. We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, the do so in well-defined, often predictable, patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 practically all the gains in the market were made during November thorough April compared to almost nothing May through October? (See page 50)

The Almanac is a practical investment tool. Its wealth of information is organized on a calendar basis. It alerts you to those little-know market patterns and tendencies on which shrewd professional enhance profit potential.

You will be able to forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence when you use the Almanac to help you understand:

• How our presidential elections affect the economy and the stock market - just as the moon affects the tides. Many investors have made fortunes following the political cycle. You can be sure that money managers who control billions of millions of dollars are also political cycle watchers. Astute people do not ignore a pattern that has been working effectively throughout most of our economic history.
• How the passage of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution fathered the January Barometer. This barometer has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the stock market each year with only five major errors since 1950 for a 90.7% accuracy ratio.
• Why there is a significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month, and year.

Even if you are an investor who pays scant attention to cycles, indicators and patterns, your investment survival could hinge on your interpretation on one of the recurring patterns found with these pages. One of the most intriguing and important patterns is the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Wall Street. Aside from the potential profitability in seasonal patterns, there's the pure joy of seeing the market very often do just what you expected.