Statistical Demography and Forecasting

Juha M. Alho, Bruce D. Spencer - Collection Springer texts in statistics

410 pages, parution le 31/03/2005

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Résumé

Sustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts and their uncertainty. Similarly, the accuracy of population estimates directly affects both the distributions of formula-based government allocations to sub-national units and the apportionment of political representation. The book develops the statistical foundation for addressing such issues. Areas covered include classical mathematical demography, event history methods, multi-state methods, stochastic population forecasting, sampling and census coverage, and decision theory. The methods are illustrated with empirical applications from Europe and the U.S.

For statisticians the book provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. For demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, and professionals in related fields, the book presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. To facilitate its classroom use, exercises are included. Over half of the book is readily accessible to undergraduates, but more maturity may be required to benefit fully from the complete text. Knowledge of differential and integral calculus, matrix algebra, basic probability theory, and regression analysis is assumed.

L'auteur - Juha M. Alho

Juha M. Alho is Professor of Statistics, University of Joensuu, Finland.

L'auteur - Bruce D. Spencer

Bruce D. Spencer is Professor of Statistics and Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University.

Sommaire

Preface
Acknowledgments
List of Examples
List of Figures
Introduction
Sources of Demographic Data
Sampling Designs and Interference
Waiting Times and Their Statistical Estimation
Regression Models for Counts and Survival
Multistate Models and Cohort-Component Book-keeping
Approaches to Forecasting Demographic Rates
Uncertainty in Demographic Forecasts: Concepts, Issues, and Evidence
Statistical Propagation of Error in Forecasting
Errors in Census Numbers
Economic Applications
Decision Analysis and Small Area Estimates
References
Author Index
Subject Index

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Caractéristiques techniques

	PAPIER
Éditeur(s)	Springer
Auteur(s)	Juha M. Alho, Bruce D. Spencer
Collection	Springer texts in statistics
Parution	31/03/2005
Nb. de pages	410
Format	15,5 x 23,5
Couverture	Broché
Poids	614g
Intérieur	Noir et Blanc
EAN13	9780387225388
ISBN13	978-0-387-22538-8