Uncertain Judgements

Eliciting Expert's Probabilities

Anthony O'Hagan, Caitlin E. Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, Richard Eiser, Paul Garthwaite, David Jenkinson, Jeremy Oakley, Tim Rakow

350 pages, parution le 02/08/2006

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Résumé

An aim of much statistical research is to wring as much from data as is possible. Improved usage of expert opinion can add significantly more information than a slight improvement in efficiency through better data analysis techniques. This book presents a range of tried and tested elicitation methods to enable statisticians to get make the most of expert opinion

An elicitation method forms a bridge between an expert's opinion and an expression of these points in a statistically useful form. This book, written by a group of expert statisticians and psychologists provides an introduction to the subject and a detailed overview of the existing literature. The book guides the reader through the design of an elicitation method and details examples from a cross section of literature in the statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences disciplines.

L'auteur - Caitlin E. Buck

Editor

L'auteur - Paul Garthwaite

Paul Garthwaite, Department of Statistics, Open University, UK

Sommaire

Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement
The elicitation Context
The psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty
The Elicitation of Probabilities
Eliciting Distributions - General
Eliciting and Fitting a Parametric Distribution
Eliciting distributions - Uncertainty and Imprecision
Evaluating Elicitation
Multiple experts
Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of Expert Opinion
Guidance on Best Practice
Areas for Research

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Caractéristiques techniques

	PAPIER
Éditeur(s)	Wiley
Auteur(s)	Anthony O'Hagan, Caitlin E. Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, Richard Eiser, Paul Garthwaite, David Jenkinson, Jeremy Oakley, Tim Rakow
Parution	02/08/2006
Nb. de pages	350
Format	16 x 24
Couverture	Broché
Poids	610g
Intérieur	Noir et Blanc
EAN13	9780470029992
ISBN13	978-0-470-02999-2